13 posts tagged “milwaukee bucks”

Some other thoughts:

Harris and head coach Larry Krystkowiak talked about signing a "significant free agent." How is that going to happen if they re-sign Mo Williams and Charlie Bell? Something's got to give if the Bucks are going to be a serious player in free agency. With the Grizzlies taking Conley as expected, the market has really shut down for Mo, though. The Bucks are in the driver's seat as the only teams I see possibly having any interest (like the Lakers and maybe the Cavs) can only offer ML deals. It's really going to come down to whether the Bucks want Mo Williams or not.

I do think the arrival of Jason Richardson hastens the departure of Gerald Wallace in Charlotte. It's probably going to take around $10M to get Wallace, though, so if he's the "significant free agent" on the list, the Bucks have to cut bait with somebody.

I don't know what was funnier - the Celtics trading the fifth pick for Ray Allen or the Knicks fans going crazy because they added another gigantically selfish player to their collection of gigantically selfish players. Yes they got rid of Francis and his bloated contract but at what cost? But at least Spike Lee was there still thinking it was the 90s and Patrick Ewing was in the paint.

I still think the Hawks screwed the pooch by not trading for Stoudamire but Horford and Law aren't bad fallback options by any means. Those are two terrific players they added to the mix. That team's future just got a whole lot brighter and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them take a major step forward next season.

A player who doesn't want to play for them. Yi Jinalian.

On the one hand, I commend Larry Harris for sticking to his guns and taking who he thought was the best player available. I've long preached that's the way to go. But there's no question he's put the team's future on the line in a big way in the process by taking a player who has made it clear he wants no part of the Milwaukee Bucks.

When Yi was picked by the Bucks, he looked like a guy in a room full of super models who was just told they all left and the only girl remaining was Rosie O'Donnell. Me and my buddies couldn't stop laughing at that. Player after player was picked and they walked up onto the podium smiling and laughing and basking in the moment of their lives. Except for one.

The one the Bucks just happened to take.

I don't question Yi's skills. He is a skilled player. I do worry about the scouting reports which question his heart, his defense and his desire to be a physical player. The Bucks aren't lacking for perimeter shooters who abhor defense. And now they may have possibly added another. Harris' ability to improve the team's frontcourt defense has been undercut because unless he trades Villanueva the primary frontcourt minutes will be handled by Bogut, Villanueva and Yi (assuming he's still on the team), none of whom are or project to be a good defender.

That's a problem.

So by drafting Yi, Harris didn't appear to solve any of the glaring problems his team has but instead, potentially created a large number of other ones in the process. This is the type of thing you do for a player who, without question, has elite talent and/or potential. I'm not sure that's the case with Yi.

To be honest, I'm more bummed about what transpired at 33. That's a pick the Bucks should have had were it not for the gigantic blunder by Harris last year. The Markota trade made zero sense at the time given the talent that was expected to be available in this draft and sure enough there were a large number of players who were on the board at 33 who are much more talented than Markota has shown to be thus far. And to think such a player ends up in the hands of the World Champs is even more incredible.

But that's why the Spurs are who they are - they don't make foolish mistakes. They're smart and when a team offers them a potential value for garbage they jump at it. So now the Spurs add a possible rotation player to the mix and the Bucks still have Markota.

Wonderful.

I did like the Sessions pick. There wasn't much on the board and frankly I have extremely low expectations for the 56th pick but he has solid PG ability and is a solid defender. It'll be interesting to see if he can push Greer for a roster spot.

Back to Yi, so his handlers will demand a trade in what will be the least surprising post-draft story of the year. The main problem with trading Yi now is the Bucks have zero leverage. Everybody and their mother knows he doesn't want to play for them so why offer Milwaukee anything of value? I'm not sure Harris gets a better offer than he was getting prior to last night. I'm not sure Yi gets traded because at this point it may be impossible for the Bucks to bring back any value for him.

The Bucks really are screwed here. They are gambling that a player who insisted he didn't want to play for them before the draft and then again once the pick was made will somehow change his mind. It's a huge gamble and maybe it pays off but it also has the potential to blow up in Harris' face, end his tenure as the Bucks' GM and set the team back a decade or so in the process.

This reminds me of the line from "All the President's Men:"

"We're under a lot of pressure, you know, and you put us there. Nothing's riding on this except the, uh, first amendment to the Constitution, freedom of the press, and maybe the future of the country. Not that any of that matters, but if you guys f' up again, I'm going to get mad. Goodnight."

We've had a lot of rumors and reports about the Bucks in recent weeks. As we get closer to the draft we're bound to hear even more. While there's no way to know how many are completely accurate or partially accurate or completely unfounded, if we presume there's at least some shred of truth to the ones which have been reported by multiple credible sources, it seems we can come to the following beliefs:

1. The Bucks are not 100% sold on Mo as the starting PG. If the rumors about the Bucks pursuing Billups are even remotely true this is clearly the case. We have gotten reports which say the Bucks will have no interest in Billups but others are now saying the Bucks are poised to make a run at him. If the Bucks were 100% sold on Mo there's no way we'd hear a sniff of Billups' name in connection with the Bucks. None. And yet, we are.

2. The Bucks believe Al Horford ie third-best player in the draft and want to trade up to get him if possible. That's been reported by multiple sources now so it stands to reason there's some (and possibly a lot of) truth to it.

3. If No. 2 is correct, then there's an excellent chance the Bucks' brass is not entirely sold on Villanueva as the starting PF. While many people (myself included) believe Horford can play C at the next level, the overwhelming consensus is that his primary position will be PF. If the Bucks are thinking about trading up to get him, it's pretty darn clear they are not completely sold on the current starting PF (and no, I don't mean Brian Skinner).

4. The Bucks aren't completely certain about Bobby Simmons' status for next season. If there's any truth to the Gerald Wallace rumors, this is clearly the case. No way the Bucks would be thinking about spending around $10M a year on Wallace if they had full confidence that Simmons was going to return to full health. Unlike 2005, I don't think we're going to hear great news about an injured player's return on the eve of the draft.

Those are the top things I've observed based on the recent reports and rumors.

According to multiple reports, the Bucks are going to make a strong run at free-agent point guard Chauncey Billups when the free-agency period begins next month. While there's no question Billups would provide a major upgrade at the position over Mo Williams, I have always believed the Bucks signing Billups was nothing more than a pipe dream for two significant reasons:

1. The Bucks would have to seriously overpay to pry him away from the Detroit Pistons.
2. I can't see any reason why Billups would want to go to the Bucks given how his primary interest has always been winning.

The Bucks are a sorry team. Two trips to the lottery in three years and only one trip beyond the first round of the playoffs in the past 17 years is hardly the type of enticement that can be expected to sway Billups. Furthermore, if the Bucks are to make a run at Billups, it will likely take at least $12 million a year and possibly as much as $13 million a year to get him. However, as much as I value what Billups could bring to the point guard position, that's simply too much to pay for him.

What I find most interesting if these reports are true is that they make it quite clear the team is not sold on Williams as the long-term answer as the starting point guard. I have had this sinking suspicion for some time based on the comments made by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal reporters. Given how the Bucks tend to spoon feed the J-S when it comes to Bucks coverage, when that paper posed the question of whether Williams was really a good fit as a starting point guard on a contending team, it sent out a strong signal that belief was coming straight from Bucks' management.

Making a run at Billups would prove without a shadow of doubt that is the case.

Combine this with the recent report about Charlie Villanueva possibly being on the trade block and it would appear the two greatest liabilities I have been talking about with this team are ones the Bucks may be prepared to part ways with if necessary. That provides me with some hope that General Manager Larry Harris understands the issues these two players in particular bring to his team and how important it is to either remove them completely or shift them to backup roles and find better talent to work with the starting lineup.

During his online chat today, ESPN.com NBA reporter Chad Ford confirmed the Bucks are very interested in moving up in the draft so they can select Al Horford. Something to keep in mind is Ford has a strong connection to Bucks' GM Larry Harris and that connection has resulted in Ford breaking a lot of stories about team moves and the direction the team was headed. So when Ford talks about a possible personnel move for the Bucks, there's a 99.9% chance it's legit.

Combine this with Bucher's report and it seems clear the Bucks want Al Horford in a bad way. And if the Hawks believe they can move down to six and still get the player they want (Mike Conley Jr. perhaps) these are two teams sitting in a great position to make a deal. 

According to ESPN's Ric Bucher, the Bucks are willing to make a Draft Day deal with the Atlanta Hawks that would send disappointing power forward Charlie Villanueva and the sixth pick to the Hawks for the third pick. The Bucks would then take Al Horford with the third pick.

This would be a sensational move for the Bucks in my opinion. Larry Harris' biggest mistake as the Bucks' GM thus far was last summer's trade of T.J. Ford to the Raptors for Villanueva. While Ford was one of the game's top young point guards and helped lead the Raptors to their best season in years, Villanueva was injured and disappointing and spent most of the season unable to pass a career journeyman (Brian Skinner) on the depth chart. He played soft, showed no interest in defense and his motivational issues (long a problem) reared their head again when Harris called him "lazy" at the end of the season.

Villanueva is a horrible fit for the Bucks at power forward. The Bucks need a strong, defensive-minded PF next to Andrew Bogut in the frontcourt. Villanueva brings neither of those things. He plays weak in the post, has little interest in defending and needs to shoot a lot to make an impact. On a team that had major issues with selfishness this season, Villanueva adds more problems to the mix. 

If the Bucks were able to move him and the sixth pick to get Horford - who I believe is the third-best player in the draft - that would be a tremendous move. Horford is essentially the anti-Villanueva. He brings defense to the interior, is a strong rebounder, a solid shotblocker and while his offensive game is limited at the present time it has room to grow. He could become an All-Star caliber PF in this league for many years.

The Bucks have made it clear they want a physical defensive presence in the frontcourt. Combine that and Harris' comment and it's clear the team has some major questions about Villanueva. If Harris trades him now and removes one of the team's greatest liabilities in terms of becoming a contender it shows he's aware of the gigantic mistake he made and rather than save face he's willing to rectify the mistake quickly and assertively in an attempt to improve the team.

That's what the great GMs do. Harris has yet to prove he's even an average one given his rather dismal record with the team the past four years. But he is smart and he has a chance this summer to make the right moves to turn this team around. If he pulls the trigger on this trade it will send a strong message that he's prepared to do just that.

Given how none of these players have played a game since the lottery my list hasn't changed greatly. I don't dismiss the workouts completely but nothing is more important than game production IMO. So excluding Greg Oden and Kevin Durant here's my breakdown of prospects:

TIER 1
Al Horford (PF/C) - The pre-eminent prospect for the Bucks in my opinion. He's big, strong, athletic, defends, rebounds and can play both frontcourt positions. He was the best player in my opinion on the national championship team and he provides everything the Bucks badly need at the PF position as well as providing the team with a needed upgrade at the backup C position behind Bogut. I will be absolutely astonished if he is on the board at six. He's too good of a player to fall that far. But if he does, I'll be partying like a high school virgin at Mardi Gras.

Mike Conley Jr. (PG) - The king of the PG class in this draft without question. He is smart, has a keen understanding for how to play the position, is athletic, strong, long and plays bigger than his listed height. On top of all that, he's a winner, an attribute the Bucks are sorely lacking. He lacks range as a shooter but he's a terrific finisher and there's no reason to believe his outside game can't improve over time. Again, it would be a major shock to me if he was on the board at six. But if it happens and the Bucks pass on him for anyone other than Horford it's the type of mistake that could haunt this team for years given Conley's potential and the glaring need this team has at the starting PG position in my opinion.

TIER 2
Corey Brewer (SF) - He would instantly bring a defensive upgrade to the Bucks given his ability to defend at least three and possibly four positions on the court. He's slight in frame, but he can compensate with his athletic ability and quickness. His offensive game needs work but on the Bucks that wouldn't be an issue since they have more than enough offense. What they are sorely lacking is perimeter defense. Brewer would bring plenty of that.

Jeff Green (SF) - Measuring out at nearly 6-10 has raised his stock in my opinion and he's not far behind Brewer on my board. I do not believe he's a PF but his height and strength does open the door for him to possibly play the position at times. He's versatile and has the potential to be a point-forward at the next level. I'm not sure I see Lamar Odom but it's possible he's a more diverse Shane Battier. That would be a nice addition to any team but is it worth the sixth pick? That's the question I'm still not sure about.

TIER 3
Julian Wright (SF) - A very good defender and a good athlete who, like Brewer, should be able to defend multiple positions (although unlike Brewer he won't be able to defend PGs). His offensive game lacks polish, however, and his drop-off in rebounding from last season to this season is a red flag in my estimation. There's also the concern that he's more of a tweener than a natural SF.

THE I DON'T WANT THEM TIER
Yi Jianlian (PF) - Ignore for a moment the scouting reports which make him sound like Charlie Villanueva Redux (soft, perimeter oriented, questions about motivation). The more important issue is the number of warning signs which strongly indicate Yi wants no part of the Bucks. If that's the case, fuck him. Let him go somewhere else.

Brandon Wright (PF) - I don't want this year's Marvin Williams. The fact he weighs only 200 and is built more like a SF than a PF only added to my conviction that he is a potential bust. That doesn't even take into account his highly suspect motivational issues and his sub-par rebounding. Those two red flags alone are enough to keep him off my board. Maybe he won't bust; maybe he'll become a good and possibly even great player in this league. But I'm not going to lie - I don't want to wait 5-7 years to find out. That's an eternity by NBA standards.

Joakim Noah (PF) - On paper, he seems to address the Bucks' need for a frontcourt defender. But when you watch him play over time, he doesn't scream out great or even real good but just decent. I think he's a player who would benefit from being around great players and that's not the situation he'd enter with the Bucks. At six, the Bucks need something more than just decent and someone who can elevate their team's game. On top of all that, he reportedly has no interest in playing for the Bucks. So like Yi, I say fuck him. Let him go someplace else.

That's my list. Other than Green rising and Brandon Wright dropping off the list, it hasn't changed since the end of the college season.

That is what I want to see the Bucks do with the sixth pick in the draft.

Don't talk to me about Brandan Wright's potential. Don't try and sell me on the belief that Yi Jianlian is another Dirk. Don't tell me how good Joakim Noah's workouts have been even though he spent the entire season being outplayed by two of his teammates.

The only two players I want the Bucks to draft with the sixth pick are Al Horford or Mike Conley Jr. If both are gone, I want to see them trade the pick.

The Bucks have two glaring needs - the lack of a physical frontcourt presence to play alongside Andrew Bogut and a desperate need for a true point guard who understands how to run an offense and make his teammates better. After the top two picks, the best players on the board in my opinion are Horford and Conley. And they just happen to address those two needs better than any other player the Bucks could take.

Unfortunately, it's likely that one or both will be gone by the time the Bucks get to make their selection.

If Conley doesn't go third to the Hawks they are even more ignorant then I already believe them to be. He addresses their glaring point guard issue and enables them to avoid passing on three dynamic young point guards in as many drafts. I highly doubt he will be on the board at six.

Horford is another matter, though. While I consider him the third-best player in the draft he could fall to the Bucks. As I said above, the Hawks should take Conley at 3. The Grizzlies have the fourth pick and could go after someone like Yi or maybe Brandan Wright. The Celtics pick fifth and almost certainly won't take Horford since they already have Al Jefferson at power forward. My hunch is the Grizzlies take Horford to team with Pau Gasol (or replace him). But if they pass on Horford there's an excellent chance he'll be on the board at six for the Bucks.

And the Bucks MUST take him. He's far too talented to pass on.

But if he's gone and Conley is gone I want to see the Bucks try and trade the pick. I want to see an immediate impact player come from this pick. So that means I don't want "upside" players like Yi or Wright and I don't want a workout warrior like Noah who would look much better as a 9th or 10th pick. If Horford and Conley are gone, the Bucks need to trade the pick and get a proven veteran, preferably one in the frontcourt.

Otherwise, I hope they draft Corey Brewer.

But my preference is Horford, Conley or a trade. That's what I believe the Bucks need to do.

As my blog readers know, I'm not sold on Mo Williams being the starting point guard for the Milwaukee Bucks long-term. I don't think his shoot-first mentality and massive defensive issues are what that team needs at the position. But if Mo is allowed to leave as a free agent this summer or is dealt in a Sign & Trade, who could the Bucks go with as a stopgap in the short term.

How about Charlie Bell?

I think there are some inherent flaws in both PER and Per/48 in terms of player analysis but here are Bell's Per/48 stats for last season at point guard:

19.4 points
8.9 assists
5.6 rebounds

At shooting guard this season they were:
19.3 points
4.1 assists
3.8 rebounds

So using Per/48, his scoring was about the same but his assists and rebounds were considerably higher. The assists should be expected but the rebounding spike is noticeable.

Now here are Mo's Per/48 numbers at point guard for this season:
21.2 points
8.4 assists
6.4 rebounds

So using Per/48 the numbers are pretty equal. And for those who place a high value on PER, Bell's PER at PG last season was higher than Mo's this season. Bell's PER at PG last season was 20.1. Mo's PER at PG this season was 16.9.

It is my contention that Bell's best position on the Bucks is point guard and that his best production for the team came last season when he played point guard and so I believe the Bucks need to move him back to that position.

It can be said said that Bell is not a creator at point guard. However, there is a strong school of thought which says the Bucks do need a creator at the point guard position. So if that's the case, if all the PG needs to do is shoot the ball well, shouldn't that make Bell a viable option? After all, we know Bell can shoot. His FG% the past two seasons is almost identical to Mo's. And there's no question he's a much better defender.

So if you have two players who put up similar offensive numbers at the position and one is the far superior defensive player and will almost certainly come at a lower cost, shouldn't the more affordable and far superior defensive player at least warrant some discussion as the starting point guard?

When it comes to starting point guards in the NBA, Mo Williams isn't someone I'd want to turn my offense over to. He's a shooter first, second, third and often fourth. And that mindset has been a problem the two seasons Williams has been the starting point guard for the Milwaukee Bucks.

And with the off-season fast approaching, there are some indications the Bucks may be preparing for life without Williams, who will become an unrestricted free agent this summer.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had some interesting comments about Williams recently. One came from Doug Collins, who said the Bucks lack a top-flight starting point guard. The other came from one of the paper's beat writers who said Williams' best role with a contending team may be as a sixth man. I happen to agree with that point of view and it would not surprise me if this info is something the paper's beat writers have heard from others around the league as well.

And now come rumblings the Bucks may be preparing to make a big splash in free agency this summer, perhaps targeting talented small forward Gerald Wallace. Given their cap situation, the only way the Bucks can sign a big name free agent is if they let Williams go.

There are some other signs this may be the case. They are:

Looking at the following three things:

1. The implementation of the Triangle offense.
2. Charlie Bell possibly moving back to point guard.

The Triangle offense is one which would actually suit Williams well since it does not require a point guard to create effectively for others. I've long believed the Lakers should make a run at Williams given how well he would fit in their offense (assuming they would be OK with his atrocious defense, of course). But while it would fit Williams' style of play, it would also fit Bell's style if he was to move back to point guard. So if the Bucks let Williams go they may not feel pressured to pursue a top-flight point guard or even draft highly touted point guard Mike Conley Jr. because the offensive system will rely less on the point guard's need to create for others. Instead, they could just plug in Bell and pursue a modest-priced backup. Yes that offense suits Williams' skills, but it also suits Bell as well.

I have long criticized the Bucks' trade of talented young point guard T.J. Ford. Turning the offense over to Mo Williams was a mistake and that was proven in the standings this season. Each season Williams has been the starting point guard, he's put up nice numbers but the team has sunk to the depths of the lottery. This season, the Bucks badly missed Ford's overall point guard skills and talent as well as his innate ability to help a team become a winner.

It's possible the Bucks' brass agrees with me about Williams not being the long-term answer at point guard. There are certainly plenty of signs of late pointing in that direction.